In our annual Awards Season coverage, Capital Cinema follows major critics and guild awards in film and tracks their “matchup rates” with the related Oscar category over the past ten years. Get ready for some numbers!
The oft-maligned Golden Globes is not the best awards show to look at when making Oscar predictions, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Its voting body, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) has been criticized for having too small of a membership, including a lack of Black representation among its members, and a lack of quality cinema journalists in its membership. Coupled with its recent sexual assault scandal and accusations of studios bribing the HFPA for nominations, it’s no question why the Golden Globes are considered a bit of a joke. Many of the winners even look tired in their speeches!
Considering there is little to no overlap between the voting bodies of the Academy and the HFPA, like there are with the BAFTAs and guild awards, matches between Golden Globes and the Oscars are often attributed to sheer randomness or the Golden Globes “going with the flow.” The Golden Globes are, indeed, very populist and sometimes go with more mainstream picks that don’t match the rest of the season.
However, Golden Globe winners often go on to win at awards with larger voting bodies such as Critics Choice and BAFTAs, and many times win the Oscar. So, in that sense, the Golden Globes still matter for your Oscar predictions!
The Golden Globes took place on Sunday, January 7 and the awards were streamed and updated live on Twitter/X at @goldenglobes.
Best Motion Picture – Drama: Oppenheimer
While Oppenheimer has taken Best Film prizes overwhelmingly at local critics awards, it had yet to win one of the major national prizes until tonight. Both the Gothams and the National Society of Film Critics gave their award to Past Lives, while New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review favored Killers of the Flower Moon and Los Angeles Film Critics favored The Zone of Interest.
While Oppenheimer’s win at the Golden Globes cements it as the “popular favorite,” the Golden Globe for Motion Picture – Drama doesn’t have the best record of predicting the Oscar win (3/10 times over the past ten years). Right now, the most likely Best Picture winner is Killers of the Flower Moon, considering the National Board of Review Best Film has gone on to win Best Picture 6/10 times.
Also nominated:
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Past Lives
- The Zone of Interest
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: Poor Things
Poor Things beating out Barbie for Musical/Comedy at the ever-populist Golden Globes is a sign that the cult of Poor Things is not to be underestimated. In fact, the only awards Barbie walked away with tonight was Best Original Song and an award for, well, how much money it made. While the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy has only gone on to win Best Picture once over the past ten years (for Green Book, of all things), this win does hint that Poor Things is one to watch. It managed to beat out not only Barbie, but American Fiction and The Holdovers in a pretty stacked lineup.
Also nominated:
- Air
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- May December
Best Motion Picture – Animated: The Boy and the Heron
It seems to be growing increasingly possible that The Boy and the Heron will beat out Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse for the Best Animated Feature Oscar. The Boy and the Heron has not only swept local critics awards, but won prestigious national awards at the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. When Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won the Oscar in 2018, it nabbed the NYFCC, LAFCA, and the Golden Globe. So, The Boy and the Heron is repeating Spider-Verse’s winning streak, proving Spider-Verse‘s loyal fanbase won’t be enough for it to pull through wins this season.
Also nominated:
- Elemental
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Suzume
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- Wish
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language: Anatomy of a Fall
The Golden Globes continues to give its international film award to the oddest, most misguided choice with Anatomy of a Fall, a film whose dialogue takes place almost entirely in English. The Globes also nominated Past Lives here, another baffling decision as it, too, is mostly in English and is an American film.
While this win isn’t a surprise, as Anatomy of a Fall has swept every major international film award with the exception of the National Society of Film Critics, it doesn’t help Oscar pundits considering the film wasn’t submitted for Best International Film. That being said, we get a hint at the future Oscar nominees here, with Fallen Leaves, Society of the Snow, and The Zone of Interest all popping up again. Likely, The Zone of Interest will take home the Oscar in Anatomy of a Fall’s absence.
Also nominated:
- Fallen Leaves
- Io Capitano
- Past Lives
- Society of the Snow
- The Zone of Interest
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Lily Gladstone continues her awards sweep to Best Actress with her win for the Golden Globe for Drama. Gladstone picked up Best Actress wins at the New York Film Critics Circle, the National Board of Review, and technically at the Gothams for her performance in The Unknown Country, but she couldn’t beat out Sandra Hüller at Los Angeles Film Critics or National Society of Film Critics.
The winner of the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama has gone on to win the Oscar 5/10 times over the past ten years, but its influence has notably waned over the past 3 years (the last Oscar/Golden Globe winner was in 2019, for Renée Zellweger in Judy). Given that Gladstone gives a quieter, more subtle performance in Killers than her compatriots Hüller and Emma Stone, she’s still on somewhat shaky ground despite her momentum. If she pulls off a win at Critics Choice it’ll be good karma for her Oscar win.
Also nominated:
- Annette Bening, Nyad
- Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
- Carey Mulligan, Maestro
- Greta Lee, Past Lives
- Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Best Actor has been messy so far, with many critics season awards going to performances in Passages and All of Us Strangers, meaning there’s still no clear frontrunner in this race. That’s not unusual, as Best Actor is often chaotic until the Golden Globes. Considering the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama is one of the closest matches with Best Actor of any other acting award, sitting at 80% accuracy over the past 10 years, Cillian Murphy’s win cements him as the frontrunner for the Oscar.
His biggest competitors are Paul Giamatti, who picked up the National Board of Review, and Bradley Cooper in Maestro. However, the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG awards often all agree on Best Actor, since they all sit at 70-80% matchups over the past ten years, so it’s quite likely Cillian will sweep those awards as well.
Also nominated:
- Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
- Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Colman Domingo, Rustin
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Emma Stone, long considered a frontrunner in the Best Actress race, hasn’t been able to beat out Gladstone and Hüller at any other major acting prize. Only here, where she’s not forced to compete with them, has she been allowed a win.
Generally, the Golden Globes for Best Actress don’t line up as well with the Oscar as the Golden Globes for Best Actor, especially in Musical/Comedy. With this win Emma Stone only has a 3/10 likelihood of taking home the Oscar prize.
In her race to Best Actress for La La Land in 2016, Emma Stone cemented herself as the one to watch by winning the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy. That may also be true here, even though it seems love for Hüller and Gladstone far eclipses the Poor Things cult. If she goes on to win the Critics Choice, she and Gladstone will be neck-and-neck until the BAFTAs.
Also nominated:
- Alma Pöysti, Fallen Leaves
- Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
- Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
- Margot Robbie, Barbie
- Natalie Portman, May December
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
It’s sparse competition in the Best Actor – Musical/Comedy category this year, and Paul Giamatti was the obvious choice. There’s still a chance Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction could get a more surefire spot in the Best Actor Oscar race, but the competition is stiff and the odds are slim.
Sadly, the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy has one of the worst records for matching up with the Oscar of any of the other acting prize. Considering the Drama winner almost always takes the Oscar prize, the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy winner hasn’t won Best Actor in the past ten years. So while Paul Giamatti is second-in-line to Cillian Murphy in the Best Actor race, there’s a pretty slim chance he’ll pull it off. Giamatti also has a National Board of Review under his belt, which has matched up with the Oscar 2/10 times over the past ten years.
Also nominated:
- Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
- Joaquin Phoenix, Beau is Afraid
- Matt Damon, Air
- Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
- Timothée Chalamet, Wonka
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
No surprise here, as Da’Vine Joy Randolph has swept nearly every critics prize, including the 4 major critics prizes (NYFCC, NBR, LAFCA, NSFC). With her Golden Globe win, she has about a 60% chance of winning the Best Supporting Actress Oscar based on results over the past ten years. In the past, every actress who’s won all 4 of those awards has gone on to win the Oscar, of which there are only 4 in history, including Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk in 2018.
Hopefully she can pull her momentum through the SAGs, which has a 90% matchup rate with the Supporting Actress Oscar. Last year, Jamie Lee Curtis was able to win the Oscar without previously winning anything but the SAG. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen to Randolph.
Also nominated:
- Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
- Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
- Jodie Foster, Nyad
- Julianne Moore, May December
- Rosamunde Pike, Saltburn
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
This is the first major award season win for Robert Downey, Jr., who until now hasn’t been able to beat out Charles Melton in May December, Ryan Gosling in Barbie, and Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Of these lucky few, Charles Melton has been the most beloved in critics season, taking the Gotham (2/10 matchup), New York Film Critics Circle (5/10 matchup), and National Society of Film Critics (5/10 matchup).
However, the winner of the Golden Globe is far more likely to take home the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, sitting at a cool 7/10 matchup rate over the past 10 years. If Downey can nab a Critics Choice win, which is likely, he’ll be almost sure to win the Oscar, considering the Critics Choice winner takes home the Supporting Actor Oscar 90% of the time.
Also nominated:
- Charles Melton, May December
- Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
- Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ryan Gosling, Barbie
- Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Best Director – Motion Picture: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
With his Golden Globe win, Christopher Nolan cements himself as the frontrunner for Best Director, beating out previous critics season winners Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest and Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon. Nolan was an early favorite with the New York Film Critics Circle, but he couldn’t beat Glazer at Los Angeles FIlm Critics or National Society of Film Critics. Oddly, LAFCA has a solid chance of predicting the Best Director Oscar, at a mid-tier 50%, meaning it’s Glazer that had the closest shot at the Oscar until now.
With his Golden Globe win, Christopher Nolan has a 70% chance of winning the Best Director Oscar based on wins from the past ten years. Most Golden Globe-winning directors are able to keep momentum through Critics Choice, Director’s Guild, and BAFTA, leading to an eventual Oscar. However, last year Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert were able to steal Steven Spielberg’s momentum at Critics Choice, meaning any of the other directing frontrunners still have a shot.
Also nominated:
- Bradley Cooper, Maestro
- Celine Song, Past Lives
- Greta Gerwig, Barbie
- Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture: Justine Triet & Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
The Golden Globe for Screenplay isn’t that adept at predicting wins for either Screenplay Oscar, considering both adapted and original scripts are merged into a single category. While the Golden Globe winner has gone on to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars 4 times over the past 10 years, it’s worse at predicting Best Adapted Screenplay, with no wins.
Anatomy of a Fall is competing in Original Screenplay, meaning that come Oscar time, it will likely be up against Past Lives, May December (which took NYFCC and NSFC), and The Holdovers (which took NBR). Anatomy of a Fall has only received the Gotham so far, but its Golden Globe win could point to Oscar success.
Original Screenplay is one of the more difficult categories to predict (though not as difficult as Best Adapted Screenplay), and this year the race is made all the more difficult by the fact that the WGA awards will take place after the Oscars. This year, we’ll have to rely on the Critics Choice Award, which has an 80% matchup rate over the past 10 years, which is actually more than the WGA. There’s a decent chance Anatomy of a Fall could prevail there.
Also nominated:
- Celine Song, Past Lives
- Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
- Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
- Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, Barbie
- Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Best Original Score – Motion Picture: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
The Best Original Score race is usually solidified at the Golden Globes, which has about a 60% matchup rate with the Oscars. Previously, Killers of the Flower Moon and The Zone of Interest took home the Hollywood Music in Media Award and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards for score.
The most important award when looking at score is the BAFTA, which has a 90% matchup rate with the Oscar over the past ten years. The Grand Budapest Hotel and All Quiet on the Western Front were both able to win the Oscar for Score by winning the BAFTA and nothing else. More often than not, a film wins all 3 at Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs, but when in doubt, the BAFTA is the most powerful award for Score.
Also nominated:
- Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things
- Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron
- Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest
- Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Original Song – Motion Picture: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie, by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
This is the second award for “What Was I Made For?” this season, since it also won the Hollywood Music in Media Award for Best Original Song in a Feature Film. At HMMA, it beat out Oscar shortlisters “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “High Life” from Flora and Son, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, and “Keep it Movin” from The Color Purple. Here, only 3 Oscar shortlisters are nominated, including “Dance the Night” which wasn’t nominated at the HMMAs.
With its Golden Globe win, “What Was I Made For?” has a 70% chance of going on to win the Oscar for Best Original Song. Given that the Academy has a rule to nominate only two songs per film, the Music Branch will have to pick between “Dance the Night” and “I’m Just Ken” for Barbie’s very likely second song nomination, which is a tough choice.
Also nominated:
- “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, by Bruce Springsteen
- “Dance the Night” from Barbie, by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Dua Lipa, and Caroline Ailin
- “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, by Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt
- “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, and John Spiker
- “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, by Lenny Kravitz
When are the next awards?
We’re really getting into it now! Next up, the Critics Choice Movie Awards will take place on January 14. The Critics Choice Movie Awards are considered to be perhaps the most important award of Oscar season, as they have the most categories in common with the Oscars.
And if you’re predicting the documentary awards, don’t miss the Cinema Eye Honors on January 12. One of the major documentary guilds, it’s helpful in predicting the nominations in documentary feature and short!
Want to know the dates of all film awards this season? Visit our 2023-2024 Awards Season Calendar for a streamlined, bare bones version of all the awards you need to follow if you’re making Oscar predictions. And make sure to follow Capital Cinema’s Awards Season coverage for insight into every category, from Best Picture to Best Live Action Short!
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