In our annual Awards Season coverage, Capital Cinema follows major critics and guild awards in film and tracks their “matchup rates” with the related Oscar category over the past ten years. Get ready for some numbers!
The National Society of Film Critics awards are one of the final “big” critics association awards of Oscar season, at least until the Critics Choice Movie Awards. One of the more prestigious film critics awards in the United States, the Society is known for its highbrow tastes and distinguished members such as Roger Ebert, Richard Brody, and Peter Travers.
The National Society of Film Critics publishes its awards annually on its website and on its Twitter/X account @NatSocFilmCrix. This year, the awards took place on January 6, 2024. So, let’s get to it!
Best Film: Past Lives
Runners-up: The Zone of Interest and Oppenheimer
Past Lives taking this one is no surprise, as it’s been a favorite with critics throughout the season. The film took home the Gotham Award for Best Picture (which has taken home the Oscar prize 5/10 times over the past 10 years). The National Society of Film Critics winner has taken home an Oscar 4/10 times in the same period.
Past Lives is also nominated at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards and the Golden Globe Awards, and has made the BAFTA longlist. At this point, a win is difficult to predict, obviously, but at the very least, we can say Past Lives has a surefire chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination, and a moderate chance of taking home the prize in March. Definitely a film to watch this season.
Best Director: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Runners-up: Todd Haynes, May December and Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest is another critical favorite, having won the Los Angeles Film Critics Association prize for both Best Director and Best Film. Over the past ten years, LAFCA has a better track record for lining up with a Best Director Oscar win than the National Society of Film Critics, with a 5/10 matchup rate to NSFC’s 2/10.
That being said, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association winner has a 9/10 record of receiving a Best Director nomination, and the NSFC winner has a 6/10 record. Jonathan Glazer is not nominated at either Critics Choice or the Golden Globes, but he has received a spot on the BAFTA longlist, and The Zone of Interest is nominated for International Film at both the Critics Choice and Golden Globes.
Glazer faces tough competition for the Best Director nomination. Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese are safely locked in for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, respectively, while Greta Gerwig for Barbie, Celine Song for Past Lives, Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall, Alexander Payne for The Holdovers, and Glazer float around as possibilities to fill those next 3 slots. Glazer, having 2 major critics awards under his belt, is a relatively safe choice for your GoldDerby ballot, perhaps even safer than some of the other “floaters.”
Best Actor: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Runners-up: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction and Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
The Best Actor category has been messy so far this season, with no clear frontrunner yet. Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers was a runner-up for Best Lead Performance at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, aside from taking Best Actor with NSFC.
However, neither LAFCA nor NSFC Best Actor winners have the best record for lining up with Oscar wins over the past ten years, with a 0/10 and a 1/10 matchup, respectively. Looking at both the LAFCA award for Best Actor and its new category of Best Lead Performance, the LAFCA runner-up was nominated for the Oscar 7/10 times, one more time than the winner. Meanwhile, the NSFC winner has been nominated for the Best Actor Oscar 4/10 times.
Scott was able to sneak into the Golden Globes, which nominate 12 actors each year, and the BAFTA longlist (where he will likely be a finalist, considering BAFTAs favor British and Irish actors). But Scott couldn’t snag a Critics Choice spot, which nominates only 6 people. This signals that the sector of voters rallying around him might be much smaller than it is for other actors. He might be, say, the 7th or 8th most-liked performance out of the Golden Globes’ available 12.
Considering there are only 5 Best Actor slots at the Oscars, it’s unlikely Andrew Scott will be able to make his way to a nomination, though he is one to watch, for sure.
Best Actress: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest
Runners-up: Emma Stone, Poor Things and Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
With her wins for Best Actress at both LAFCA and NSFC, Sandra Hüller has solidified her Best Actress nomination next to Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone.
Neither LAFCA nor NSFC has the best track record for lining up with Oscar wins, at 2/10 and 3/10, respectively. However, when it comes to nominations, the LAFCA winner has a 8/10 chance of receiving a Best Actress Oscar nomination, and the NSFC winner has a 9/10 chance. Hüller is also nominated at the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globe Awards, and on the BAFTA longlist.
It’s also extremely likely that Hüller will be nominated for Anatomy of a Fall over The Zone of Interest. Her nominations at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and the BAFTA longlist are all for Anatomy of a Fall. This makes sense, as her performance is considered the driving force of that film, more so than it is in The Zone of Interest.
Suffice it to say, Sandra Hüller should take your number 3 slot for Best Actress as another lock-in pick for Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Supporting Actor: Charles Melton, May December
Runners-up: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton is one to watch, having taken home both the Gotham and the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, beating out noted frontrunners Robert Downey, Jr. and Ryan Gosling in both (and here as well!).
The National Society of Film Critics Award winner has received a Best Supporting Actor Oscar win 5/10 times over the past 10 years, while the Gotham Award winner (having only existed for 3 years) has won 2/10 times, and the New York Film Critics Circle winner has won 5/10 times. This leaves Charles Melton with a moderate chance of receiving an Oscar win.
However, his chance of receiving an Oscar nomination is even more certain. The NSFC winner has a 7/10 chance of receiving an Oscar nomination, while the New York Film Critics Circle winner has a 9/10 chance. The fact that Melton has received both a Critics Choice and Golden Globe nomination makes him a lock-in for Best Supporting Actor.
It is indeed strange that Charles Melton was shut out of the BAFTA longlist, but this doesn’t necessarily hurt his chances. It’s worth noting that the BAFTAs are British awards and hence, tend to favor British films and British actors. UK actors Anthony Hopkins, Ben Whishaw, Jamie Bell, and Paul Mescal all beat out Charles Melton for the BAFTA longlist despite not receiving much attention in American critics awards.
When it comes to making your Oscar predictions, don’t be discouraged by Melton not making the BAFTA longlist. He should make your list for Best Supporting Actor in slot 3 or 4.
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runners-up: Penélope Cruz, Ferrari and Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s win here comes as no surprise, as she’s swept every major critics award this season. With the New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and National Society of Film Critics awards under her belt, Randolph’s momentum is almost sure to carry her through the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs, where she is also nominated.
Over the past ten years, 6 out of the 10 Supporting Actress Oscar winners have taken home at least one of the 4 major critics awards also taken by Randolph (NYFCC, NBR, LAFCA, and NSFC). The only other actor who was able to sweep all 4 of those awards was Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk in 2018. At this point, we can predict that Randolph will not only sweep the rest of the season as King did, but that she can translate that momentum to an Oscar win.
Best Screenplay: May December
Runners-up: Past Lives and The Holdovers
This is one of the most competitive years for screenplay in recent memory, but Samy Burch’s script for May December, which is campaigning in Original Screenplay, has received some fairly consistent love. May December also took the Best Screenplay prize at the New York Film Critics Circle awards, which has a 1/10 track record of receiving an Oscar win for Original Screenplay over the past ten years.
The National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Screenplay has matched up with the Oscar win for Original Screenplay 3/10 times over the past 10 years. When it comes to receiving an Oscar nomination, the NSFC winner has received a nomination 6/10 times over the past ten years, while the New York Film Critics Circle winner has received a nomination 7/10 times. May December was not nominated for Screenplay at the Golden Globes, but it did receive a nomination at Critics Choice and a spot on the BAFTA longlist.
It’s worth noting that both BAFTAs and Critics Choice nominate 12 screenplays separated into Original and Adapted, while the Golden Globes merge all screenplays into a single Best Screenplay award with 6 nominees. The original screenplays nominated at the Golden Globes are Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives, which hints that those films might be voters’ first picks for original screenplays over May December. Given its critics season wins and its BAFTA and Critics Choice nominations, there’s a chance May December is in 3rd, 4th, or 5th place.
Though it has lots of competition, May December could very well make your GoldDerby ballot for Original Screenplay in slot 4 or 5.
Best Cinematography: Killers of the Flower Moon
Runners-up: The Zone of Interest and Oppenheimer
Cinematography is still a bit of a toss-up. Oppenheimer took New York Film Critics Circle, Poor Things took Los Angeles Film Critics, and Killers of the Flower Moon has taken National Society of Film Critics. It’s very likely all 3 of these films, along with The Zone of Interest, will be nominated for the Oscar come January 23. But where does Killers of the Flower Moon rank?
The National Society of Film Critics winner has only won the Best Cinematography Oscar twice over the past ten years, and both of those wins (Roma and Blade Runner 2049) had tons of momentum. The NSFC winner has received a nomination 7/10 times, however, and given that Killers of the Flower Moon is also nominated at Critics Choice and on the BAFTA longlist (the Golden Globes don’t award cinematography), it’s basically a lock-in for a nomination. It needs to keep momentum to win, and at this point, it needs to beat Oppenheimer, tough competition indeed.
Best Foreign Language Film: Fallen Leaves
Runners-up: The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall
It’s a bit of a surprise that Fallen Leaves was able to beat out powerhouses The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall, but even the critics can’t resist a feel-good favorite! This is the first major critics award win for Fallen Leaves, which, as a result of this award, has a 3/10 chance of receiving a Best International Film win and a 6/10 chance of receiving a nomination.
While Anatomy of a Fall was able to sweep the Best International Film Awards at Gotham, New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review, and Los Angeles Film Critics Association, it won’t be nominated in Best International Film at the Oscars, given that France chose not to submit it for consideration. So, a win for Fallen Leaves over The Zone of Interest provides some much-needed insight into the Best International Film race.
While The Zone of Interest is the frontrunner for Best International Film (since it is likely to receive a Best Director and possibly even a Best Picture nomination), Fallen Leaves could perhaps occupy the second-place spot. It could definitely secure a nomination come January 23.
Best Non-fiction Film: Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros
Runners-up: 20 Days in Mariupol and Kokomo City
As the Oscar shortlists revealed, Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros was not able to receive a nomination for Best Documentary Feature Film despite winning at New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association as well. That being said, 20 Days in Mariupol made the Oscar shortlist and, with a runner-up status here, is gently nudged towards receiving a nomination.
When are the next awards?
We’re really getting into it now! The Golden Globe Awards, the first major film award of the season, will take place on January 7. The Golden Globes are one of the most important awards of Oscar season, despite the fact that its members have little to no overlap with Academy voters, and the HFPA has lost credibility over the past few years. However, traditionally the Golden Globe Awards have had some of the most overlap with the Oscars of any other awards.
The Golden Globe Awards are one of the “Big Four” awards to watch for when predicting the Oscars come March. The “Big Four” awards tend to have the most categories in common with the Oscars, the most overlap in voting members with the Academy, and the most likely chances to match with the Oscars’ decision. The “Big Four” are the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Movie Awards, the BAFTA Awards, and the guild awards for each Oscar category (i.e., the Costume Designers Guild, where the costume designers vote on the best costume designs of the year).
So, if you’re predicting the Oscars, make sure you don’t miss the Golden Globes tonight!
Want to know the dates of all film awards this season? Visit our 2023-2024 Awards Season Calendar for a streamlined, bare bones version of all the awards you need to follow if you’re making Oscar predictions. And make sure to follow Capital Cinema’s Awards Season coverage for insight into every category, from Best Picture to Best Live Action Short!
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